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Prediction for CME (2024-05-01T06:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-05-01T06:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/30362/-1
CME Note: Wide bulb-like CME with a clear bulk and a wider shock. Its source is an eruption starting after 2024-05-01T05:50Z seen in AIA 304 and 193 as a large size dimming centered around ~S20W65, an opening of field lines seen in AIA 193/171 to the south of AR 3654. There might be an EUV wave with this eruption but it is not easily discernible in AIA 193: there is an isolated less deep dimming around S20W35 in AIA 193 and especially AIA 335 but it is unclear whether this a separate sympathetic eruption. No clear arrival signature has been found in the solar wind data.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-05-04T07:50Z (-4.72h, +6.43h)
Prediction Method: CMEFM v.0.1
Prediction Method Note:

Time of Launch: 2024/05/01 06:40Z
Plane of Sky 1: 12:30Z; 31.5Rsun; WSW Direction
Plane of Sky 2: 17:20Z; 31.5Rsun; ENE Direction
POS Difference: 4:50
POS Midpoint: 14:55Z
TOL/Midpoint Difference: 8:15

Numeric View/Impact Type: 0
POS Difference Resulted Value: ~8.87
Travel Time: ~8.87 * 8:15 = 73:10

Predicted L1 Arrival: 2024-05-04T07:50Z

Error Parameters:
 - POS Difference: 1 Hour
 - Travel Time Square Root: 50%

Notes:
Coronagraph Imagery Quality: 2/5


Forecast Creation Time: 2024/05/01 15:48Z

Lead Time: 63.15 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Garrett Imhoff (Other) on 2024-05-01T16:41Z

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